Europe and Geopolitical Spillover Effects from the Asia-Pacific

At the start of the twentieth century, Europe was the home region of most of the world's leading powers. It also was the main stage for geopolitical rivalry between the same countries. Today Europe finds itself in a position where it is a secondary theatre for geopolitical actors from, and events in, other parts of the world. In that regard, the roles of Europe and the Asia-Pacific have switched places since the end of the Cold War. Europe, once the source of global colonial power, does not play a significant role in the regional security order of the Asia-Pacific. A question that the European Union needs to engage with, and that this contribution addresses, is how geopolitical rivalry in the Asia-Pacific, notably between the US and China, may spill over into and affect regional stability in Europe.

Five types of linkages potentially connect the security orders of different regions: military actors (one or more great powers being a leading military actor in both regions), security partnerships (leading actors in each of the two regions being formal allies or close strategic partners), economic dependencies (of countries in one region on those in another, and vice-versa), geography (two regions bordering on each other directly or indirectly via a state situated in between), and international governance institutions (when encompassing both regions). Historically, geography (first the Mongolian Empire and later Russia constituting territorial units comprising parts of or border on Europe as well as the Asia-Pacific) and the military presence of great powers in both Europe and the Asia-Pacific (initially the European colonial powers, today Russia and the US) have been the most important geopolitical links between the two regions. While these long-existing factors continue to be important in the present, the other three factors have become more relevant in today's world.

The presence of these linkages does not mean that great power competition in one region necessarily causes or contributes to instability in another. For this to happen, the linkages need to function as conduits of geopolitical tensions. It is important to consider that they can also act as buffers that prevent the spreading of instability beyond a given region, and that for any linking factor there are two possible directions of spillover. Three linking factors currently are conduits for geopolitical spillover from the Asia-Pacific to Europe: multi-regional military actors, security partnerships, and economic dependencies.

Geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific can destabilize Europe. The EU cannot make itself invulnerable to this risk. At a minimum, it should therefore be aware of the potential impact of such geopolitical spillover, and prevent the geopolitical tensions that exist in Europe from spilling over into Asia. In addition, the EU should focus specifically on reducing the chances that linkages between regional security orders act as conduits for geopolitical spillover from the Asia-Pacific to Europe. The main potential conduits for geopolitical spillover between the two regions are (1) the role of the US as a major military actor in both regions, (2) strategic partnerships and alliances, and (3) economic dependencies. What the EU and its member states need to do to limit the risk of geopolitical spillover is increase Europe's ability to militarily deter Russia and decrease European dependence on US military protection; stabilize the currently volatile security relationship with Russia and avoid a European military role in the Asia-Pacific (via NATO or otherwise); and ensure that the EU's economic relations with China are based on two-way dependencies.

By Frans-Paul van der Putten

Based on excerpts from Chapter 3 in: Security Order and Strategic Alignment in Europe and the Asia-Pacific: Times of Global Power Shifts, edited by Elena Atanassova-Cornelis, Yoichiro Sato and Tom Sauer. Taylor & Francis, 2025.