Japan’s Shift toward NATO and Europe

A new report by LeidenAsiaCentre on Japan-Europe security relations highlights significant developments in Japan's foreign security policies. These are particularly relevant for Europe as it reassesses its strategic options in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

While Japan remains strongly committed to its military alliance with the United States, it is diversifying its security partnerships and adopting an increasingly proactive approach to regional stability in Asia. This shift is driven by a deteriorating security environment. North Korea continues to expand its nuclear capabilities, Russia has been engaged in a large-scale military intervention in Ukraine for the past three years, and China is growing stronger both militarily and economically. These developments not only alter the balance of power between Japan and China but also reshape the dynamic between the United States and China.

As the world's leading military power, the United States remains capable of protecting its allies, including Japan, from direct military threats. However, in most cases, economic instruments have been more effective than military means in exerting U.S. influence. In the past, Washington was able to use economic sanctions—or the threat thereof—to discourage states from challenging the U.S.-led global order, often referred to as the rules-based international order. When sanctions failed, the U.S. could often isolate or marginalize non-compliant states economically and diplomatically.

However, the rise of China as a global economic powerhouse, alongside other emerging economies such as India, is fundamentally reshaping this order. The U.S. no longer possesses the same economic leverage to dictate global norms and enforce sanctions effectively. This shift became particularly evident following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As Russia's largest trading partner before the war, China chose not to participate in Western-led sanctions, thereby limiting their effectiveness. This, in turn, has emboldened other nations to challenge the existing governance system. The United States itself has also become less committed to upholding multilateral institutions and norms. Under President Trump's first term, the U.S. distanced itself from several international agreements and institutions; under his second term, this trend is accelerating.

For U.S. allies such as Japan, American military protection has long been complemented by the strategic advantages of being closely aligned with the U.S.-led global order. However, as the influence of that order wanes, the military alliance remains the primary pillar of Japan's security strategy. While the alliance with the U.S. remains crucial, Japan now operates in a less stable international environment where multilateral institutions are losing effectiveness. Moreover, the U.S. may not always be the most committed or aligned partner in areas beyond bilateral defense cooperation.

As this report highlights, Japan is responding to these challenges by pursuing a more autonomous and proactive role in Asia. This includes strengthening ties with regional partners, including China. In the weeks leading up to Trump's second inauguration in January 2025, high-level diplomatic engagements between Japan and China began to intensify. Moreover, as Van der Veere outlines, a significant shift in Japan's defense and security policy had already begun under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (2021–2024).

For European governments and the European Union, this moment presents a crucial opportunity to deepen security cooperation with Japan. During my visit to Tokyo in January 2025, just before Trump's second term began, I observed a strong interest among Japanese experts in strengthening security ties with Europe. This is an opportunity Europe cannot afford to overlook. Stability in East Asia and Europe is increasingly interconnected, and it is clear that both regions must take greater responsibility for maintaining security and preventing instability.

Originally published as foreword to Anoma P. van der Veere, Shaping a New Alliance: Japan's Defense Evolution and Strategic Shift towards NATO and Europe, LeidenAsiaCentre, April 2025. Click here to go to the report.